* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 71 71 67 59 52 50 48 47 46 46 45 44 44 42 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 55 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 59 45 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 18 17 27 18 18 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 0 0 -3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 354 359 333 333 1 341 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.7 29.7 28.9 27.8 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 159 156 163 163 149 133 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 138 135 140 142 131 116 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 13 11 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 66 66 64 70 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 21 21 21 16 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 33 40 39 47 45 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 12 45 52 20 36 41 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -9 1 3 -10 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 119 35 -40 -115 -288 -428 -357 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.2 25.4 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.3 97.1 97.9 98.6 100.3 101.9 103.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 25 22 30 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 11. 7. -1. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.0 95.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 24.0% 15.6% 13.1% 10.9% 12.3% 11.2% 10.6% Logistic: 12.1% 17.8% 11.3% 10.7% 5.5% 15.1% 11.2% 5.8% Bayesian: 15.1% 22.2% 6.6% 4.8% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.3% Consensus: 13.5% 21.3% 11.2% 9.6% 5.6% 9.7% 7.6% 7.2% DTOPS: 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 69 55 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 63 49 37 26 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 60 57 56 42 30 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 38 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT