* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 62 61 59 53 47 46 44 44 44 44 44 45 44 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 62 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 62 43 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 19 21 12 23 16 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 3 -2 2 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 344 323 329 356 3 333 353 336 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.3 30.1 29.0 28.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 157 155 170 150 148 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 141 135 133 146 130 128 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 11 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 62 67 64 72 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 19 20 16 13 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 24 22 36 22 44 56 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 34 10 14 48 20 50 40 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -1 -6 -4 -5 -6 -7 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 237 181 142 103 46 -93 -235 -369 -467 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.6 95.5 96.3 97.0 98.4 99.8 101.1 102.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 46 33 23 22 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. -1. -5. -13. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 16. 14. 8. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.3 93.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 21.3% 15.2% 12.2% 10.3% 12.4% 12.9% 15.2% Logistic: 16.8% 34.1% 24.7% 21.2% 10.8% 20.2% 14.4% 9.6% Bayesian: 11.1% 25.1% 10.5% 5.3% 0.6% 4.0% 1.3% 14.3% Consensus: 12.1% 26.9% 16.8% 12.9% 7.3% 12.2% 9.5% 13.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 58 62 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 56 35 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 49 28 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT