* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 51 54 54 52 51 51 51 51 52 52 51 51 51 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 51 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 48 51 44 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 10 9 19 22 13 23 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 0 1 -3 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 1 333 333 357 330 356 312 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.3 30.4 29.8 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 163 161 155 170 164 150 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 142 139 133 152 142 128 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 10 10 10 13 10 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 60 62 65 67 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 13 15 15 13 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 23 22 22 21 28 25 52 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 14 19 2 -2 27 23 43 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -1 -4 -6 -2 -5 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 239 160 132 83 -43 -181 -306 -397 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.2 26.4 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.7 94.6 95.5 96.3 97.8 99.3 100.5 101.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 37 40 29 22 41 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 0. -2. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.1 92.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.6% 12.0% 9.7% 7.8% 10.8% 10.7% 14.6% Logistic: 8.2% 21.1% 15.4% 13.9% 6.7% 20.8% 16.0% 11.4% Bayesian: 1.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 2.0% 14.9% Consensus: 5.4% 13.8% 9.6% 8.1% 4.9% 10.8% 9.6% 13.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/24/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 48 51 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 47 39 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 33 22 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT