* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082020 07/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 38 41 42 44 47 48 51 48 49 52 54 56 59 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 38 41 42 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 42 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 10 12 9 16 12 17 13 20 11 16 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 1 -1 1 -1 2 -2 2 -4 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 7 335 7 23 326 18 349 19 321 346 311 352 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.2 30.4 30.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 161 163 167 163 154 170 169 154 149 143 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 140 141 145 140 132 150 146 129 126 123 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 66 69 63 70 65 66 63 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 6 6 5 3 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 9 -10 -4 16 -2 25 19 19 33 31 35 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 12 -22 -6 23 -17 27 10 34 33 23 36 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -5 -7 -4 -8 -4 -3 0 -1 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 345 310 292 284 258 141 47 -62 -173 -250 -311 -413 -504 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.3 91.1 91.9 92.6 93.4 95.0 96.6 98.0 99.2 100.0 100.6 101.6 103.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 26 24 26 36 37 20 26 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 17. 18. 21. 18. 19. 22. 24. 26. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.0 90.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 22.0% 15.5% 12.0% 10.4% 12.6% 12.9% 19.4% Logistic: 18.3% 48.2% 39.1% 26.8% 12.7% 33.0% 41.5% 28.2% Bayesian: 4.3% 19.9% 8.7% 2.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 9.3% Consensus: 10.1% 30.1% 21.1% 13.6% 7.8% 15.6% 18.4% 19.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 38 41 42 44 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 37 39 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 32 34 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 24 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT