* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082020 07/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 37 39 43 45 49 52 56 56 57 56 58 60 63 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 37 39 43 45 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 41 44 35 29 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 1 7 10 1 15 6 17 9 25 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -1 2 -2 5 -3 4 -2 4 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 78 13 319 359 32 360 320 12 332 352 335 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.2 30.6 30.7 30.0 29.4 28.9 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 159 161 163 161 154 170 169 167 155 148 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 138 140 141 138 131 155 154 139 130 125 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 10 9 12 11 15 11 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 63 65 65 63 65 63 65 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 30 17 -9 -7 8 7 18 9 22 11 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 31 6 -18 -5 14 -12 26 3 38 18 21 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -4 -5 -2 -3 -8 1 -4 1 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 334 304 279 266 237 128 45 -67 -182 -272 -328 -424 -560 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.3 90.9 91.5 92.3 93.0 94.7 96.1 97.7 99.1 100.1 100.7 101.7 103.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 27 24 24 29 32 21 40 6 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 13. 15. 19. 22. 26. 26. 27. 26. 28. 30. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.1 90.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.1% 13.8% 10.8% 9.1% 12.1% 12.8% 23.4% Logistic: 9.8% 46.7% 35.4% 24.8% 14.0% 40.7% 39.9% 37.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 5.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 5.4% Consensus: 5.8% 23.9% 17.0% 12.0% 7.7% 17.7% 17.6% 22.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 37 39 43 45 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 35 39 41 32 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 35 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT