* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082020 07/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 26 28 29 34 37 41 44 48 50 52 52 54 55 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 24 26 28 29 34 37 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 29 26 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 10 3 8 7 10 7 13 14 24 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -2 2 4 0 3 -3 1 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 23 62 38 339 53 311 35 335 5 329 11 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.1 29.1 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 167 160 160 163 152 152 169 167 167 171 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 149 146 140 139 140 129 130 148 143 145 154 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 10 9 11 12 12 11 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 64 65 64 62 67 60 65 61 64 59 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 7 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 22 4 -23 1 -15 7 2 12 3 22 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 18 31 6 -21 6 -12 13 11 35 20 33 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -4 -2 -10 -1 -8 -4 -6 -2 -5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 360 345 325 276 249 191 93 -6 -103 -158 -170 -265 -486 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.1 89.9 90.6 91.4 92.1 93.8 95.2 96.5 98.1 98.7 98.7 99.8 102.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 5 1 2 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 51 35 24 23 35 25 25 9 6 6 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 29. 30. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.8 89.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.5% 12.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 51.0% 40.0% 31.1% 22.4% 30.0% 27.7% 32.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 4.2% 23.0% 17.6% 13.6% 7.5% 10.0% 13.1% 11.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 EIGHT 07/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 26 28 29 34 37 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 34 37 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 32 31 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 24 23 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT