* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/08/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 56 56 53 47 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 56 56 53 47 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 56 53 47 40 33 27 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 19 23 31 38 56 74 68 57 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 0 6 5 3 18 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 144 156 171 185 195 204 216 227 234 246 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.7 23.9 19.7 16.8 15.2 13.3 12.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 128 124 114 101 83 78 76 74 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 110 107 100 90 77 74 73 72 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -53.7 -52.4 -50.5 -47.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -1.3 -1.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 46 45 38 39 51 51 56 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 16 15 16 17 13 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -36 -47 -46 -30 -55 -61 -64 -65 -4 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 33 36 29 39 39 74 34 30 34 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -2 -9 -14 -25 -43 -20 -52 -75 -55 -93 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1382 1247 1114 1008 931 1004 1290 1380 702 199 291 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.9 37.2 38.7 40.1 42.7 45.3 48.5 52.2 56.0 60.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.3 49.0 48.8 47.4 46.0 41.7 36.3 28.9 20.6 10.8 0.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 18 19 22 27 31 33 35 34 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -23. -33. -43. -49. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -10. -11. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -8. -17. -34. -48. -61. -65. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 34.6 49.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.24 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.1% 12.8% 10.4% 8.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 11.8% 6.9% 3.8% 1.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 10.0% 6.5% 4.7% 3.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 56 56 53 47 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 53 50 44 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 47 41 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 42 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT