* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/08/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 56 56 52 42 31 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 56 56 52 42 31 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 54 52 48 41 35 30 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 21 18 15 20 34 39 56 74 64 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 4 0 4 2 0 19 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 121 141 158 176 182 195 219 234 244 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.6 28.0 27.7 26.8 25.3 23.3 18.7 16.8 14.4 13.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 146 137 134 124 111 98 81 78 75 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 124 117 115 107 98 88 76 74 73 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -54.2 -53.5 -52.2 -50.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -1.1 -1.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 44 42 41 43 33 31 44 47 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 19 18 17 13 10 8 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -38 -31 -30 -51 -17 -54 -70 -84 -64 37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -7 16 46 37 44 35 42 45 19 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -12 -4 -5 -18 -28 -14 -34 -91 -82 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1641 1521 1402 1260 1122 937 1072 1444 1246 525 110 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.4 34.4 35.8 37.2 40.2 42.9 45.4 48.6 52.3 56.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.3 48.8 49.4 48.9 48.5 45.7 40.6 34.2 27.0 18.0 7.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 16 21 25 28 32 35 37 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 17 15 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -13. -24. -36. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -14. -17. -23. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 2. -8. -19. -33. -51. -53. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.4 48.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 18.2% 12.8% 8.9% 0.0% 10.7% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 5.7% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.1% 5.4% 3.5% 0.2% 3.9% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 54 56 56 52 42 31 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 53 53 49 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 48 48 44 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 42 38 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT