* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/08/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 52 52 45 32 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 52 52 45 32 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 47 47 45 40 33 28 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 22 21 19 20 27 38 47 64 72 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 6 5 1 0 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 106 124 146 162 191 190 209 234 245 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 28.6 27.8 27.8 25.8 24.3 20.7 18.0 16.5 14.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 146 135 135 115 104 87 80 77 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 124 115 116 101 93 80 75 74 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.3 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 43 41 43 37 29 31 40 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 18 18 16 9 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -27 -38 -32 -28 -46 -33 -48 -88 -99 -73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -6 -3 19 38 30 42 6 14 25 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -14 -16 -2 -9 -23 -27 -43 -38 -53 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1727 1614 1504 1370 1237 972 938 1258 1522 823 196 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.7 33.5 34.7 35.9 38.9 41.9 44.4 47.0 50.0 53.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.4 48.3 49.2 49.3 49.5 47.7 43.4 37.2 29.9 21.6 12.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 14 19 24 27 30 32 31 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 18 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 399 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -11. -20. -33. -39. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -15. -20. -25. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 0. -13. -25. -40. -41. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.8 47.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.7% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 3.5% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 49 52 52 45 32 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 50 50 43 30 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 46 46 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 39 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT