* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 53 53 47 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 53 53 47 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 48 48 46 41 32 26 22 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 19 21 20 19 30 41 57 77 87 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -1 1 0 1 -1 5 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 106 117 127 147 181 184 206 219 228 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 29.1 29.1 28.3 27.8 26.8 25.5 23.0 19.0 16.2 14.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 155 154 141 135 124 113 96 82 77 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 134 131 119 115 107 99 86 76 73 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -54.1 -53.1 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 41 40 43 41 40 31 25 34 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 19 19 17 7 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -13 -30 -37 -30 -52 -12 -36 -36 -52 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -4 -7 -5 14 38 42 25 13 31 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -5 -15 -13 -1 -29 -22 -88 -117 -123 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1803 1696 1594 1476 1359 1058 876 1018 1328 1298 637 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.2 32.8 33.8 34.8 37.7 40.6 43.4 46.0 49.3 53.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.8 47.1 48.5 48.9 49.4 48.9 46.2 41.0 35.5 28.2 19.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 13 16 20 24 27 31 33 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 18 19 17 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 348 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -13. -25. -41. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -19. -27. -28. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 2. -17. -33. -48. -49. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.5 45.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.5% 11.4% 9.0% 6.2% 9.5% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 3.8% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.8% 4.6% 3.2% 2.2% 3.6% 3.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 49 53 53 47 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 51 51 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 47 47 41 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 40 34 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT