* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/07/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 49 53 54 54 47 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 49 53 54 54 47 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 45 45 46 47 47 46 40 33 27 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 19 17 20 20 20 32 49 68 85 64 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -1 1 0 -2 2 5 3 -1 1 11 4 SHEAR DIR 87 99 109 111 126 168 197 196 216 231 237 239 229 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.8 29.1 28.0 27.4 25.6 24.3 20.1 17.2 14.6 12.6 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 149 154 137 130 113 104 85 79 75 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 129 132 117 111 98 92 78 75 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -51.2 -48.3 -46.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 38 40 41 43 44 45 36 29 33 45 61 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 18 18 18 18 20 17 9 6 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -24 -20 -35 -37 -47 -53 -22 -18 -57 -12 39 117 200 MB DIV -20 -7 3 -8 -12 49 33 50 24 24 30 45 6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -4 -11 -2 -8 -27 -29 -74 -87 -77 -32 LAND (KM) 1904 1797 1694 1573 1453 1184 958 905 1138 1563 891 431 316 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.7 32.3 33.2 34.1 36.5 39.2 42.1 44.8 48.3 52.8 57.2 61.3 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.3 46.6 47.6 48.5 49.0 47.3 43.7 38.6 31.8 23.4 14.0 4.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 12 12 13 17 21 26 32 35 34 32 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 16 20 13 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 20 CX,CY: -17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -19. -33. -45. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. -6. -17. -22. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 9. 2. -15. -31. -42. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.1 44.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 389.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.3% 10.7% 9.0% 6.4% 9.3% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 10.9% 7.7% 3.9% 2.7% 6.6% 4.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.9% 6.2% 4.3% 3.0% 5.3% 5.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 48 49 53 54 54 47 30 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 52 53 53 46 29 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 48 49 49 42 25 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 41 41 34 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT