* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/07/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 60 63 67 71 71 70 58 37 18 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 60 63 67 71 71 70 58 37 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 59 61 66 68 68 65 59 48 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 10 10 8 9 12 15 11 19 33 50 77 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 4 3 5 4 10 SHEAR DIR 204 231 61 79 97 124 156 183 189 201 220 223 234 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.1 28.0 28.7 29.0 27.8 27.2 25.3 23.2 18.5 15.4 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 140 138 148 152 134 128 110 97 81 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 123 122 129 128 113 108 95 87 76 74 73 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -51.5 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 42 40 40 42 46 45 39 34 36 45 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 17 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 11 -1 -24 -20 -42 -39 -42 -14 -12 11 7 66 200 MB DIV -19 -25 -8 -15 -14 -2 22 31 53 59 62 54 46 700-850 TADV 8 0 0 -1 0 -9 0 -3 -1 -19 0 -56 -44 LAND (KM) 2289 2147 2006 1883 1763 1548 1319 1113 1024 1076 1328 1214 538 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.7 30.5 31.2 31.9 33.4 35.4 37.8 40.0 42.7 46.3 50.8 56.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.2 41.6 42.9 44.3 45.7 47.7 48.3 46.9 44.4 40.7 35.4 27.7 17.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 10 11 14 17 23 30 37 39 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 11 11 14 19 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 16 CX,CY: -8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -6. -17. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -6. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 21. 20. 8. -13. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.8 40.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 19.7% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 17.0% 15.5% Logistic: 3.0% 6.4% 4.3% 0.9% 0.2% 2.9% 4.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 9.4% 6.4% 0.3% 0.1% 5.0% 7.1% 5.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 57 60 63 67 71 71 70 58 37 18 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 56 59 63 67 67 66 54 33 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 51 54 58 62 62 61 49 28 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 46 50 54 54 53 41 20 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT