* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/06/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 48 55 62 66 69 69 64 41 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 48 55 62 66 69 69 64 41 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 43 46 52 56 60 60 57 51 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 28 13 6 5 11 13 6 11 21 30 46 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 8 8 11 SHEAR DIR 213 210 222 95 84 89 130 180 188 202 206 213 220 SST (C) 27.8 28.6 29.1 28.1 28.0 29.5 28.7 27.7 27.3 25.3 21.5 17.1 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 147 155 140 138 161 147 134 130 111 89 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 134 140 125 122 137 123 113 110 96 81 74 72 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 44 44 43 41 42 45 46 45 38 37 42 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 18 21 22 22 24 26 27 19 850 MB ENV VOR 18 29 14 0 -21 -15 -31 -52 -24 -23 -3 14 36 200 MB DIV -6 -20 -25 -19 -24 0 -8 48 41 36 93 82 54 700-850 TADV 16 8 0 2 0 -2 -7 2 -3 -14 -14 -82 -95 LAND (KM) 2320 2319 2162 2024 1890 1678 1481 1252 1075 1006 1135 1472 1026 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.4 29.4 30.2 31.0 32.3 33.8 36.0 38.3 40.8 43.6 47.3 51.9 LONG(DEG W) 39.1 40.4 41.8 43.2 44.7 47.2 48.7 48.4 46.6 43.6 39.3 33.2 25.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 15 15 14 11 9 12 15 19 25 31 34 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 18 12 10 22 19 11 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -7. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 15. 22. 26. 29. 29. 24. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.4 39.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.6% 3.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 4.4% 1.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 44 45 48 55 62 66 69 69 64 41 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 46 53 60 64 67 67 62 39 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 41 48 55 59 62 62 57 34 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 41 48 52 55 55 50 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT