* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 47 50 56 61 67 68 68 65 52 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 47 50 56 61 67 68 68 65 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 43 45 49 53 57 59 59 54 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 36 27 11 7 11 9 9 10 25 35 47 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -1 -5 -1 -5 -1 -2 0 1 5 16 SHEAR DIR 209 213 214 221 68 82 98 175 208 210 213 214 219 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.9 28.7 28.0 29.1 29.0 27.9 27.4 25.6 23.4 18.7 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 139 152 149 138 154 152 136 130 113 98 80 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 138 134 123 134 127 114 109 97 87 75 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 6 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 44 44 42 42 42 46 47 41 37 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 18 19 18 19 20 21 21 24 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 18 7 -8 -19 -41 -43 -27 -11 -16 -7 28 200 MB DIV 1 -4 -21 -22 -19 -20 -6 21 37 34 63 99 43 700-850 TADV 18 14 8 0 0 -4 -9 -2 -4 -4 -12 -27 8 LAND (KM) 2209 2343 2271 2114 1960 1738 1536 1328 1102 954 974 1191 1516 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.8 28.9 29.9 30.8 32.0 33.4 35.2 37.5 39.9 42.5 45.8 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.1 39.3 40.4 41.8 43.3 46.2 48.2 48.8 48.1 45.9 42.3 37.4 31.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 12 10 10 13 17 22 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 18 15 12 18 19 14 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 15 CX,CY: -6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1. -5. -12. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 16. 21. 27. 28. 28. 25. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.7 38.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 12.4% 8.6% 5.8% 0.0% 8.7% 12.1% 14.5% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 2.6% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 3.4% 4.9% 5.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 47 50 56 61 67 68 68 65 52 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 45 48 54 59 65 66 66 63 50 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 43 49 54 60 61 61 58 45 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 41 46 52 53 53 50 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT