* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 36 38 41 47 52 56 58 61 64 59 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 36 38 41 47 52 56 58 61 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 29 32 36 41 45 49 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 36 35 27 13 4 7 9 6 15 19 27 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 0 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 8 17 SHEAR DIR 210 214 213 215 211 72 76 113 197 189 214 211 211 SST (C) 27.3 27.6 28.2 28.2 29.1 28.4 29.4 28.4 27.6 27.3 25.2 23.0 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 133 141 141 155 143 159 142 132 129 109 96 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 121 128 128 139 126 137 119 110 109 95 86 73 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 44 45 42 41 43 43 44 44 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 19 18 20 20 22 22 24 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 17 20 17 -18 -26 -42 -50 -33 -24 -15 10 200 MB DIV 14 3 3 -24 -24 -32 -3 -3 42 35 51 99 104 700-850 TADV 14 19 15 4 2 0 -5 -7 -1 -2 6 -3 0 LAND (KM) 2084 2197 2312 2361 2204 1952 1729 1506 1313 1140 1035 1082 1330 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 26.0 27.0 28.1 29.1 30.6 32.0 33.7 35.5 37.6 40.0 43.0 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 37.1 38.1 39.1 40.3 41.5 44.1 46.5 48.1 48.1 46.7 44.2 40.4 35.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 14 13 12 9 10 14 18 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 7 13 15 13 19 14 20 15 9 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 5. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 21. 23. 26. 29. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.9 37.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.57 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 3.6% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 36 38 41 47 52 56 58 61 64 59 18HR AGO 35 34 34 36 38 41 47 52 56 58 61 64 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 44 49 53 55 58 61 56 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 36 41 45 47 50 53 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT