* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 32 32 33 37 42 46 50 53 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 35 32 32 32 33 37 42 46 50 53 56 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 27 26 25 26 29 33 37 41 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 31 33 35 29 4 4 6 10 10 23 24 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 0 -3 0 -3 -2 1 -3 2 1 10 SHEAR DIR 212 214 215 217 214 210 83 84 172 191 215 223 219 SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.1 29.3 28.2 29.3 27.9 27.6 25.8 23.9 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 127 132 138 139 158 141 157 135 132 114 101 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 116 120 126 126 141 124 133 114 111 99 90 78 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 6 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 44 45 44 42 41 45 45 42 46 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 18 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 22 24 29 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 21 14 21 4 -25 -42 -34 -40 -26 -22 -19 200 MB DIV 25 13 3 -1 -13 -35 -18 -7 25 37 52 48 97 700-850 TADV 18 14 20 12 6 -1 -1 -8 -1 -2 6 11 -17 LAND (KM) 1986 2078 2173 2297 2404 2132 1866 1641 1428 1222 1047 1024 1253 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.8 25.7 26.7 27.7 29.5 31.1 32.6 34.4 36.5 38.9 41.6 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.1 37.9 39.0 40.1 42.3 45.1 47.4 48.2 47.6 45.9 42.4 37.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 10 10 12 17 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 3 7 12 13 13 21 11 21 11 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.8 36.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/06/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 32 32 33 37 42 46 50 53 56 58 60 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 39 44 48 52 55 58 60 62 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 36 41 45 49 52 55 57 59 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 35 39 43 46 49 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT