* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 39 39 40 40 39 38 36 33 28 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 39 39 40 40 39 38 36 33 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 39 37 35 33 34 36 36 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 29 32 35 32 10 9 16 20 25 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 4 0 0 -1 3 0 -1 1 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 203 206 212 214 213 215 201 144 144 166 186 215 219 SST (C) 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.5 28.1 29.4 28.2 29.3 27.6 27.1 25.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 122 123 127 131 139 160 141 158 132 126 113 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 111 116 119 125 143 125 136 112 106 97 86 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 43 41 43 42 41 40 46 45 48 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 17 16 16 17 15 13 12 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 29 25 23 22 9 -29 -48 -37 -66 -53 -51 200 MB DIV 34 36 14 1 -7 -23 -25 -25 -14 30 40 31 57 700-850 TADV 17 19 20 14 13 7 4 1 -9 -7 -6 8 13 LAND (KM) 1884 1942 2005 2101 2199 2406 2181 1897 1638 1370 1122 953 985 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.5 25.3 27.3 29.1 30.9 32.7 34.9 37.2 39.6 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.8 36.4 37.3 38.2 40.0 42.1 44.8 47.1 48.4 48.5 46.5 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 12 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 3 6 10 13 21 12 20 9 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.3 35.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 41 39 39 40 40 39 38 36 33 28 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 39 39 40 40 39 38 36 33 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 38 39 39 38 37 35 32 27 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 33 34 34 33 32 30 27 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT