* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 40 39 40 42 43 42 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 40 39 40 42 43 42 43 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 40 38 36 35 35 37 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 23 28 31 33 22 7 9 18 19 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 6 4 1 1 0 -1 3 3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 205 206 210 215 213 213 207 174 150 153 167 176 193 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.6 28.7 28.2 28.0 29.0 28.0 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 120 121 123 132 148 141 137 152 136 127 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 108 110 112 120 133 124 119 128 114 105 102 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 5 3 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 41 42 40 43 40 42 44 47 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 17 17 17 18 17 16 14 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 41 38 30 25 22 14 24 -17 -43 -48 -53 -35 1 200 MB DIV 42 23 28 11 5 9 -26 -22 -12 -2 29 61 44 700-850 TADV 18 19 18 17 12 12 6 1 2 -8 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1824 1885 1941 2025 2110 2307 2339 2070 1837 1620 1404 1223 1068 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.5 24.2 26.0 27.9 29.7 31.2 32.8 34.6 36.3 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.2 35.8 36.6 37.4 39.2 41.2 43.4 45.7 47.4 48.3 48.3 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 10 11 13 13 13 11 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 2 4 9 19 12 10 19 11 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.5 34.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.32 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.5% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 41 40 39 40 42 43 42 43 41 39 18HR AGO 45 44 43 41 40 39 40 42 43 42 43 41 39 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 38 37 38 40 41 40 41 39 37 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 34 36 37 36 37 35 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT