* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 44 43 42 40 42 43 42 42 40 37 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 44 43 42 40 42 43 42 42 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 40 38 36 36 37 40 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 20 23 25 29 29 9 9 13 22 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 1 5 4 1 -2 2 -2 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 208 206 207 204 213 209 216 218 146 147 167 171 189 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.3 28.1 28.9 28.0 28.6 28.6 27.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 118 119 121 129 139 152 138 145 145 133 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 106 107 109 117 125 136 121 124 121 111 104 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 3 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 42 41 42 41 40 38 40 50 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 19 18 17 16 16 14 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 42 37 31 22 18 12 2 -33 -53 -40 -57 -36 200 MB DIV 62 41 18 30 14 1 -34 -29 -34 -7 26 30 53 700-850 TADV 15 17 19 18 18 13 7 1 4 -2 0 -2 5 LAND (KM) 1783 1828 1873 1947 2025 2198 2403 2185 1900 1673 1503 1309 1074 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.4 25.2 27.1 29.1 31.0 32.5 33.7 35.4 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.7 35.1 35.9 36.6 38.2 40.0 42.0 44.4 46.6 48.2 48.7 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 13 10 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 2 2 2 8 13 17 10 15 17 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.2 34.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.8% 11.3% 9.2% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.2% 4.4% 3.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 44 43 42 40 42 43 42 42 40 37 18HR AGO 45 44 45 43 42 41 39 41 42 41 41 39 36 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 38 37 35 37 38 37 37 35 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 31 33 34 33 33 31 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT