* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 44 41 39 42 44 46 45 45 42 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 44 41 39 42 44 46 45 45 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 44 41 39 38 37 37 40 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 20 21 28 30 21 7 4 13 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 2 2 6 2 2 -3 0 0 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 195 205 206 208 208 213 209 217 222 117 162 199 203 SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.4 28.6 28.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 118 119 120 123 130 146 149 137 136 130 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 106 107 108 111 117 130 131 120 116 108 103 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 3 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 43 41 43 40 43 41 40 41 48 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 20 18 15 15 16 13 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 40 51 43 39 30 15 14 15 -16 -57 -71 -63 -53 200 MB DIV 49 61 34 20 29 0 21 -33 -20 -21 -7 20 54 700-850 TADV 10 17 16 11 13 15 11 4 3 -1 -6 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1745 1794 1845 1906 1965 2108 2282 2373 2138 1862 1562 1321 1146 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.8 25.6 27.8 29.4 31.4 33.7 35.7 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.4 36.0 37.4 39.0 40.6 42.4 44.3 46.1 47.1 47.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 10 12 12 12 14 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 5 3 3 3 9 18 16 9 10 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -13. -16. -20. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -3. -1. 1. 0. 0. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.7 33.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.5% 11.6% 7.8% 7.5% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.1% 4.3% 2.7% 2.5% 0.1% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 44 41 39 42 44 46 45 45 42 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 42 39 37 40 42 44 43 43 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 39 36 34 37 39 41 40 40 37 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 30 28 31 33 35 34 34 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT