* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 44 42 42 42 46 48 48 48 47 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 44 42 42 42 46 48 48 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 44 43 41 39 37 36 35 37 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 15 17 20 23 27 28 11 5 13 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 6 1 0 5 2 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 211 191 205 209 212 217 204 217 207 123 125 178 199 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.9 28.9 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 118 119 120 127 137 151 138 136 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 107 106 106 108 115 124 134 120 117 110 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 4 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 44 43 40 40 38 40 38 38 44 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 20 17 17 16 16 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 52 45 37 26 10 9 7 -35 -67 -72 -65 200 MB DIV 39 48 46 19 7 14 1 -10 -26 -29 -30 8 57 700-850 TADV 5 7 11 12 13 17 14 7 1 4 -4 2 1 LAND (KM) 1729 1772 1815 1865 1916 2034 2183 2376 2231 1960 1693 1441 1194 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.5 21.9 23.0 24.6 26.7 28.8 30.8 32.8 34.8 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.1 34.5 35.0 35.5 36.7 38.1 39.8 41.6 43.3 45.0 46.3 47.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 9 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 7 4 3 2 7 12 18 10 11 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.2 33.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.0% 10.2% 7.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 44 44 42 42 42 46 48 48 48 47 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 41 39 39 39 43 45 45 45 44 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 35 35 35 39 41 41 41 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 28 28 28 32 34 34 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT