* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 39 39 39 39 44 47 50 48 47 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 39 39 39 39 44 47 50 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 38 35 34 33 33 33 35 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 17 19 22 25 35 14 6 9 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 228 220 204 215 219 221 209 208 211 57 65 120 195 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.6 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 116 118 118 120 122 133 152 139 136 133 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 105 107 106 108 111 121 136 122 117 112 104 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 57 53 50 47 46 41 45 41 42 39 39 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 20 19 17 17 19 18 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 43 48 44 20 17 4 17 -30 -64 -92 -60 200 MB DIV 42 31 35 38 17 15 15 2 -32 -36 -20 -10 26 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 10 10 17 16 17 3 5 -2 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1719 1759 1801 1854 1908 1996 2119 2297 2298 1995 1718 1468 1252 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.4 24.0 26.0 28.5 30.8 32.8 34.7 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.4 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.4 36.3 37.5 39.1 40.7 42.4 44.3 45.8 46.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 9 11 14 14 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 10 17 10 11 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 9. 12. 15. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 33.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 11.5% 8.7% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 3.2% 2.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 39 39 39 39 44 47 50 48 47 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 37 37 37 37 42 45 48 46 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 33 33 33 38 41 44 42 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 30 33 36 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT