* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082019 09/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 44 46 47 47 51 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 44 46 47 47 51 53 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 40 39 39 39 38 39 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 8 11 15 18 27 26 13 3 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 3 5 0 4 0 2 1 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 233 228 209 202 211 216 211 199 215 228 294 82 149 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 27.0 28.0 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 114 115 117 119 120 125 137 151 142 137 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 103 103 103 106 107 109 114 123 133 124 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 51 48 44 42 43 41 43 41 39 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 20 21 19 18 16 16 18 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 45 32 33 39 49 33 25 12 6 0 -39 -76 -64 200 MB DIV 37 47 37 42 36 9 18 9 8 -21 -22 -34 0 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 7 11 13 18 20 8 8 3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1646 1681 1716 1757 1800 1886 1985 2143 2299 2297 2030 1749 1451 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.5 22.6 24.7 26.8 28.6 30.5 32.5 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.8 34.3 35.2 36.2 37.7 39.0 40.5 42.3 44.3 46.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 7 10 12 12 12 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 4 6 4 2 5 12 18 11 11 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 21. 23. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 32.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 EIGHT 09/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 18.1% 13.3% 9.5% 9.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 9.3% 5.7% 1.9% 0.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.2% 6.4% 3.8% 3.3% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 EIGHT 09/04/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 42 44 46 47 47 51 53 52 51 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 40 42 43 43 47 49 48 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 34 36 37 37 41 43 42 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 26 27 27 31 33 32 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT