* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 75 74 75 76 74 73 75 78 81 85 86 86 84 84 86 V (KT) LAND 80 57 44 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 56 43 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 6 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 41 51 27 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 29.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 152 139 142 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 143 130 131 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 72 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 69 83 76 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 40 32 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -2 -3 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -161 -269 -237 -187 -174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.4 100.5 101.5 102.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 4 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -6. -7. -5. -2. 1. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.9 98.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.0% 8.2% 8.0% 6.6% 9.4% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.7% 4.6% 4.2% 6.4% 3.6% 5.6% 999.0% Bayesian: 10.4% 3.9% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 5.6% 7.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.6% 4.4% 1.9% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 16.0% 21.0% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/21/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/21/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 57 44 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 80 79 66 58 54 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 12HR AGO 80 77 76 68 64 60 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT