* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 112 108 104 97 91 87 84 81 79 80 83 87 89 90 90 V (KT) LAND 110 77 55 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 76 54 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 16 42 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.4 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 144 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 154 139 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 67 68 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 10 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 63 67 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 21 34 15 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -6 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -22 -147 -273 -247 -163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.2 98.5 99.8 101.4 103.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 7 5 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -6. -13. -18. -23. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -2. -6. -13. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. -30. -27. -23. -21. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.6 97.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 10.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 27.5% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 38.9% 48.3% 41.8% 32.7% 20.5% 19.9% 20.9% 999.0% Bayesian: 50.6% 27.6% 21.0% 18.5% 3.6% 0.6% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 37.6% 34.5% 29.1% 17.1% 8.0% 6.8% 7.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 99.0% 99.0% .0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/21/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/21/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 77 55 43 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 110 109 87 75 68 62 60 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 12HR AGO 110 107 106 94 87 81 79 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 93 87 85 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 85 83 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT