* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 110 106 102 97 89 82 78 75 73 70 70 74 79 82 83 83 V (KT) LAND 105 110 75 54 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 78 55 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 12 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 346 8 36 63 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 29.5 28.7 29.4 28.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 160 147 159 142 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 165 150 138 152 136 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 64 67 70 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 12 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 51 66 71 82 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 21 19 35 6 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -9 -9 -5 -4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 119 13 -93 -224 -261 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.8 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.8 97.8 99.1 100.4 103.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 25 14 5 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -10. -15. -18. -21. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -3. -0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -4. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30. -30. -29. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 1. -3. -8. -16. -23. -27. -30. -32. -35. -35. -31. -26. -23. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 20.7 95.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.13 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.5% 32.4% 26.6% 19.6% 8.1% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 56.6% 69.0% 66.8% 66.0% 55.1% 40.8% 26.2% 14.7% Bayesian: 46.0% 36.8% 24.9% 17.4% 5.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 43.7% 46.0% 39.4% 34.3% 22.7% 17.6% 8.8% 5.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 36 0( 36) 0( 36) 0( 36) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 110 75 54 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 105 104 69 48 36 26 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 105 102 101 80 68 58 54 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 83 73 69 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 76 72 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 IN 6HR 105 110 101 95 92 88 84 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT