* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 65 67 71 67 60 61 64 65 69 72 76 76 77 78 V (KT) LAND 60 46 48 51 53 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 45 46 48 50 55 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 5 9 14 12 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 0 2 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 8 13 354 357 345 6 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 28.7 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 173 171 172 172 172 148 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 170 165 166 164 164 141 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 8 12 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 57 58 63 67 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 21 21 20 15 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -10 -8 -14 -2 45 73 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 17 8 1 -5 22 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 0 0 -10 -6 -6 -11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -78 -82 80 215 246 61 -188 -172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.3 19.9 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.1 89.6 91.2 92.5 93.9 96.1 98.6 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 10 39 29 32 34 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -9. -21. -24. -25. -27. -28. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 7. -0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 12. 16. 16. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.1 88.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.58 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.3% 10.2% 9.5% 7.5% 11.9% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 11.6% 8.0% 7.7% 6.3% 12.1% 12.5% 12.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 3.7% 10.2% 6.3% 5.8% 4.6% 8.0% 7.6% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/19/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/19/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 46 48 51 53 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 61 64 66 69 50 43 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 61 64 45 38 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 55 36 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT