* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 41 44 45 46 47 47 52 51 59 61 69 73 77 78 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 41 37 31 33 34 33 37 35 43 46 54 57 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 34 30 32 31 31 31 33 36 41 48 56 64 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 11 14 14 18 16 19 7 14 2 8 4 9 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 5 3 1 9 2 3 0 1 1 0 3 -3 3 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 278 282 253 283 302 255 278 277 325 297 337 240 348 277 334 289 338 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 149 145 145 149 151 156 165 164 169 167 171 169 170 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 144 137 136 140 145 148 155 151 153 150 151 147 149 147 148 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 62 62 62 61 64 61 64 59 62 59 59 59 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 9 10 10 9 9 6 8 5 6 5 7 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 20 18 4 7 4 -15 -19 -50 -27 -53 -29 -48 -25 -50 -32 -53 200 MB DIV 54 75 76 58 54 39 15 14 3 26 -6 0 -4 1 -1 13 6 700-850 TADV -12 -16 -12 -12 -13 -23 -27 -22 -28 -14 -22 -11 -16 -6 -9 -4 -18 LAND (KM) 128 52 69 12 -20 -66 30 3 15 33 165 312 394 263 212 196 172 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.5 23.5 24.3 25.1 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 66.6 68.0 69.0 69.9 71.6 74.0 76.8 79.3 81.6 83.6 85.4 87.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 9 10 13 13 13 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 59 59 43 31 23 23 35 47 50 61 48 56 75 101 42 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -8. -13. -11. -14. -12. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 17. 16. 24. 26. 34. 38. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 65.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.0% 10.0% 8.3% 6.2% 10.0% 10.5% 14.0% Logistic: 8.5% 23.2% 13.1% 10.2% 5.1% 15.4% 15.7% 21.1% Bayesian: 2.1% 13.5% 6.6% 0.7% 0.5% 3.4% 1.7% 3.2% Consensus: 5.4% 17.6% 9.9% 6.4% 3.9% 9.6% 9.3% 12.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/15/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 41 37 31 33 34 33 37 35 43 46 54 57 61 62 18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 34 28 30 31 30 34 32 40 43 51 54 58 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 28 22 24 25 24 28 26 34 37 45 48 52 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT