* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 45 49 51 53 53 55 58 61 64 72 74 78 76 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 45 36 31 31 29 29 33 37 40 48 50 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 37 32 29 29 28 28 32 34 37 43 49 55 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 10 11 11 13 15 16 18 7 12 5 11 5 12 5 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 4 4 1 4 3 0 5 -1 2 -1 3 -7 4 -5 SHEAR DIR 252 271 276 248 271 290 259 283 279 252 265 224 246 235 276 331 341 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 29.6 29.3 30.0 29.9 30.4 30.1 30.1 29.6 30.2 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 146 148 144 144 163 158 171 169 172 170 170 162 171 168 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 136 141 142 136 135 156 151 163 160 165 151 150 144 151 140 136 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 63 64 65 64 63 61 63 63 65 62 64 60 64 60 66 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 9 8 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 4 9 18 15 6 6 -1 -2 -23 -18 -27 -27 -32 -28 -54 -47 -100 200 MB DIV 45 57 63 77 68 54 23 31 -11 32 7 7 7 18 5 19 16 700-850 TADV -2 -12 -13 -13 -14 -8 -20 -18 -23 -15 -25 -12 -20 -8 -7 -10 -9 LAND (KM) 274 142 56 27 0 -39 -35 -15 -25 -11 116 275 356 331 177 114 81 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.1 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.7 65.0 66.2 67.4 68.6 70.4 72.4 75.0 77.5 80.2 82.6 84.5 85.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 12 12 10 9 12 13 13 14 11 8 7 10 9 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 51 58 47 35 21 34 47 57 64 48 46 46 56 83 33 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. -8. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 21. 23. 26. 29. 37. 39. 43. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 63.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.1% 11.1% 9.4% 7.2% 10.8% 10.8% 13.6% Logistic: 17.8% 32.8% 21.6% 20.9% 12.3% 23.5% 20.0% 21.2% Bayesian: 3.6% 15.4% 8.6% 1.3% 1.1% 2.6% 0.5% 3.4% Consensus: 9.1% 22.4% 13.7% 10.5% 6.9% 12.3% 10.4% 12.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 45 36 31 31 29 29 33 37 40 48 50 54 52 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 33 28 28 26 26 30 34 37 45 47 51 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 27 22 22 20 20 24 28 31 39 41 45 43 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT