* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 45 50 54 56 57 57 62 63 73 77 80 82 82 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 45 49 34 35 30 29 37 38 48 52 54 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 36 38 41 31 33 29 28 33 37 42 50 57 63 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 9 7 13 14 15 14 19 5 13 3 11 17 17 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 2 2 3 4 4 -1 4 1 3 2 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 272 254 270 274 246 301 254 282 279 333 336 20 32 332 301 3 25 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.4 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.0 29.7 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 145 148 143 152 156 163 171 165 172 171 168 169 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 136 140 142 135 144 148 155 161 152 160 152 145 146 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 65 67 65 62 61 63 62 64 61 62 59 58 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 7 8 7 10 10 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -2 0 11 16 10 5 -2 -2 -30 -16 -43 -18 -49 -42 -93 -97 200 MB DIV 45 32 47 75 83 58 54 35 29 -4 39 -11 26 -2 -1 -4 -12 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -11 -12 -10 -13 -21 -24 -23 -33 -22 -29 -7 -16 -2 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 484 321 164 56 21 0 -78 31 -8 -9 51 197 298 362 272 148 47 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.4 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.5 24.7 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.5 63.1 64.6 65.9 67.2 69.4 71.5 73.9 76.4 78.8 81.0 83.1 85.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 14 13 12 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 42 58 49 25 25 42 55 51 85 39 44 42 72 76 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -6. -9. -6. -6. -5. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 27. 28. 38. 42. 45. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 61.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 17.2% 10.6% 8.9% 6.8% 10.7% 11.5% 15.5% Logistic: 11.4% 35.8% 23.4% 16.8% 10.0% 20.9% 23.7% 23.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 11.6% 4.8% 0.5% 0.4% 3.2% 1.0% 5.6% Consensus: 6.1% 21.5% 12.9% 8.7% 5.7% 11.6% 12.1% 14.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/15/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/15/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 42 45 49 34 35 30 29 37 38 48 52 54 57 57 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 47 32 33 28 27 35 36 46 50 52 55 55 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 41 26 27 22 21 29 30 40 44 46 49 49 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT