* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 55 59 67 72 72 72 70 68 70 73 79 81 86 88 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 55 59 58 57 43 44 42 41 43 40 45 46 51 41 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 57 58 58 44 46 49 52 58 57 60 66 74 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 10 14 8 13 13 16 10 14 12 12 6 12 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 0 0 0 2 3 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 299 292 268 272 288 256 293 258 302 285 352 30 19 13 309 245 331 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.5 29.1 29.0 29.6 29.7 30.3 31.0 30.8 30.3 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 143 141 140 145 144 144 154 152 163 164 171 170 170 171 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 143 140 137 139 136 136 144 142 151 151 159 166 161 151 143 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 50 55 57 58 61 68 67 64 64 64 63 66 66 69 68 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 11 13 13 13 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -25 -17 -14 -9 8 9 5 1 7 -22 -4 -11 2 -22 -4 12 200 MB DIV 13 31 47 40 42 78 71 45 7 25 6 14 6 20 13 24 13 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -3 -5 -8 -8 -13 -11 -11 -7 -11 -5 -9 -3 -4 -1 2 LAND (KM) 722 658 583 413 244 -13 -19 -42 56 85 107 151 -15 18 8 69 -57 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.4 21.4 22.6 23.9 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.8 60.5 62.1 63.6 66.5 68.7 70.8 72.9 74.9 77.0 79.0 81.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 16 15 15 12 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 7 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 44 56 31 24 31 48 32 19 31 46 49 64 52 67 66 42 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 27. 32. 32. 32. 30. 28. 30. 33. 39. 41. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.0 57.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 42.4% 28.7% 19.5% 11.1% 23.9% 27.8% 21.7% Logistic: 38.9% 62.6% 53.6% 35.5% 19.8% 44.8% 40.7% 33.9% Bayesian: 27.6% 66.2% 51.8% 8.1% 4.0% 35.0% 25.5% 20.6% Consensus: 27.9% 57.1% 44.7% 21.0% 11.6% 34.6% 31.3% 25.4% DTOPS: 7.0% 18.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/14/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/14/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 51 55 59 58 57 43 44 42 41 43 40 45 46 51 41 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 52 51 50 36 37 35 34 36 33 38 39 44 34 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 43 42 28 29 27 26 28 25 30 31 36 26 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 33 32 18 19 17 16 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT