* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072021 08/13/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 49 55 60 63 68 70 72 73 73 76 78 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 49 55 46 41 37 42 44 45 34 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 48 41 37 35 40 45 49 38 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 5 5 10 9 10 10 12 10 16 19 20 14 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 1 -1 1 3 -1 -1 -7 0 -4 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 93 130 266 304 289 284 315 280 284 294 355 357 14 9 5 328 339 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 29.9 29.3 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.6 31.0 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 140 143 145 142 143 147 148 168 157 157 166 171 171 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 140 143 145 141 140 142 142 161 148 146 153 154 160 164 151 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 50 54 61 70 72 70 67 64 62 65 66 69 64 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 7 8 6 5 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -41 -44 -37 -32 -17 6 5 15 15 5 -14 -20 -18 -15 -36 -32 200 MB DIV -7 -13 2 22 36 32 85 62 58 21 33 11 -3 4 14 -4 12 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -6 -6 -3 -7 -6 -9 -11 -10 -12 -19 -13 -13 -4 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1123 1042 888 756 668 426 107 61 -13 28 -17 45 162 46 -54 -32 -50 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.5 21.9 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.8 52.7 54.6 56.6 58.5 62.0 65.2 68.0 70.7 73.1 75.1 76.9 78.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 19 19 18 16 15 13 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 31 37 40 57 23 52 43 23 44 47 51 56 66 33 49 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 38. 40. 42. 43. 43. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 50.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 SEVEN 08/13/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.5% 9.8% 8.0% 6.1% 10.0% 12.1% 29.7% Logistic: 7.7% 37.9% 26.6% 8.2% 4.6% 20.9% 27.0% 45.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 13.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 15.2% 28.8% Consensus: 4.4% 22.3% 13.1% 5.5% 3.6% 10.9% 18.1% 34.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 SEVEN 08/13/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 SEVEN 08/13/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 42 49 55 46 41 37 42 44 45 34 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 47 53 44 39 35 40 42 43 32 28 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 42 48 39 34 30 35 37 38 27 23 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 40 31 26 22 27 29 30 19 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT