* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 42 49 57 62 70 75 82 85 88 89 93 98 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 42 49 57 62 70 75 82 85 88 89 93 98 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 50 55 60 65 71 76 81 86 90 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 2 3 6 6 9 16 8 12 12 12 15 14 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 4 -4 0 -3 -4 -1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 134 115 48 23 316 301 281 293 300 300 311 1 357 14 335 342 321 SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.6 29.0 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.5 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 129 133 133 137 141 142 139 146 152 148 154 160 163 159 159 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 133 133 137 141 141 135 138 144 139 144 147 145 138 138 145 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 49 49 54 59 67 71 70 67 65 66 66 64 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 11 10 13 14 15 16 17 17 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -37 -50 -54 -58 -44 -42 -9 -7 9 5 13 9 11 0 9 2 200 MB DIV -9 -10 -7 -12 6 33 44 79 38 83 27 50 6 25 20 27 23 700-850 TADV -2 1 -1 -5 -3 -1 -3 -6 -6 -5 -4 3 -3 0 -3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1311 1250 1198 1152 1000 762 517 169 33 74 67 178 204 297 338 246 112 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 17 17 14 11 11 12 11 10 8 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 17 23 38 41 34 36 49 36 21 32 46 62 69 61 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -1. -1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 19. 27. 32. 40. 45. 52. 55. 58. 59. 63. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 46.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.84 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 13.2% 8.7% 7.1% 5.4% 9.4% 12.1% 28.7% Logistic: 6.6% 27.9% 20.5% 4.8% 2.4% 18.0% 23.7% 45.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2% 9.3% Consensus: 3.6% 15.0% 10.4% 4.0% 2.6% 9.5% 12.3% 27.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 08/13/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/13/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 42 49 57 62 70 75 82 85 88 89 93 98 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 40 47 55 60 68 73 80 83 86 87 91 96 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 36 43 51 56 64 69 76 79 82 83 87 92 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 28 35 43 48 56 61 68 71 74 75 79 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT