* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 58 62 65 67 68 70 70 69 71 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 58 62 65 67 68 70 70 69 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 50 56 60 62 62 62 62 62 61 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 3 3 4 8 11 14 21 14 20 14 21 22 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 0 0 1 4 3 -3 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 92 101 97 69 16 320 300 273 276 277 270 281 298 312 342 340 346 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.7 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 129 133 137 139 141 140 138 146 154 153 154 151 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 126 129 133 137 137 136 131 128 133 142 141 143 138 138 135 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 53 54 54 58 61 65 67 68 66 65 65 67 77 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -26 -28 -34 -45 -55 -45 -44 -30 -31 -22 -25 -23 -33 -35 -33 -38 200 MB DIV 6 -2 -6 -15 -5 7 43 44 60 34 51 23 17 12 34 30 59 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -6 -1 -11 -9 -13 -8 0 0 LAND (KM) 1469 1373 1292 1231 1190 1006 817 593 349 157 122 181 133 178 273 286 343 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.8 46.5 48.3 50.1 53.6 57.1 60.1 62.4 64.4 66.1 67.5 69.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 17 18 16 13 10 9 7 8 9 11 9 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 7 11 18 38 33 48 47 43 61 51 33 28 35 40 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. 40. 40. 39. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 43.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.7% 9.0% 7.4% 5.4% 9.6% 11.7% 23.3% Logistic: 8.0% 33.6% 23.8% 6.1% 3.4% 17.3% 20.1% 46.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 8.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 2.7% 0.6% 18.3% Consensus: 4.5% 18.7% 11.5% 4.5% 3.0% 9.8% 10.8% 29.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 08/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/12/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 58 62 65 67 68 70 70 69 71 70 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 42 49 55 59 62 64 65 67 67 66 68 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 43 49 53 56 58 59 61 61 60 62 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 41 45 48 50 51 53 53 52 54 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT