* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 57 61 64 63 65 65 67 65 67 67 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 57 61 64 63 65 65 67 65 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 54 59 63 63 63 63 62 62 62 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 4 2 2 7 9 17 18 22 18 23 19 27 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 5 -3 -1 -4 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 78 85 104 107 39 330 310 282 289 271 297 277 329 324 353 6 355 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.5 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 125 126 129 133 135 141 141 138 144 152 148 150 154 159 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 125 126 129 133 135 139 135 130 134 141 138 140 143 146 155 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 54 53 54 55 60 60 69 69 69 67 69 68 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -29 -27 -30 -34 -48 -48 -45 -45 -26 -39 -28 -36 -29 -53 -20 -50 200 MB DIV -15 3 -7 -11 -15 -1 13 50 44 45 33 38 28 29 1 28 14 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 1 3 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 -6 -8 -16 -10 -13 -4 2 LAND (KM) 1579 1486 1406 1311 1251 1156 892 746 433 193 68 116 62 89 142 127 138 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.2 43.0 44.7 46.5 48.3 51.8 55.4 58.7 61.6 63.9 65.9 67.5 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 17 17 17 15 13 10 9 8 10 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 7 7 11 22 28 50 41 39 50 49 26 23 34 50 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 33. 35. 35. 37. 35. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 41.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.9% 8.1% 6.9% 4.9% 9.0% 11.1% 18.8% Logistic: 9.2% 35.0% 28.3% 11.5% 6.4% 18.5% 19.2% 45.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 6.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2.1% 1.0% 23.8% Consensus: 4.5% 17.7% 12.7% 6.2% 3.8% 9.9% 10.4% 29.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 08/12/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/12/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 57 61 64 63 65 65 67 65 67 67 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 41 48 54 58 61 60 62 62 64 62 64 64 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 43 49 53 56 55 57 57 59 57 59 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 41 45 48 47 49 49 51 49 51 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT