* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/12/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 42 49 58 64 71 76 80 81 83 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 42 49 58 64 71 76 80 81 49 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 34 41 50 61 72 79 81 49 56 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 19 17 12 11 5 7 8 6 16 17 21 17 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -5 -2 -2 -6 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 69 79 90 101 83 88 38 42 4 324 307 312 341 4 12 16 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.6 29.5 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 129 132 132 132 132 138 143 147 148 149 151 149 163 161 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 131 129 132 132 132 132 138 143 147 146 145 145 143 157 154 167 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 62 63 63 63 60 56 57 58 58 60 61 64 64 65 64 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -26 -31 -35 -33 -41 -43 -38 -24 -28 -26 -22 -17 -21 -13 -33 -8 200 MB DIV 2 -4 -12 3 -11 -6 3 17 33 41 24 10 8 17 42 -9 25 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -3 -2 0 0 1 2 0 0 -4 -5 -1 -6 -7 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 1675 1557 1442 1353 1269 1111 1001 907 636 522 391 158 77 11 -19 33 4 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.7 39.6 41.1 42.5 43.9 46.9 50.0 53.4 56.8 60.0 62.8 65.3 67.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 14 14 14 15 16 17 16 15 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 8 6 9 12 18 30 42 48 35 27 69 55 28 37 47 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 371 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 17. 24. 33. 39. 46. 51. 55. 56. 58. 59. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 37.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/12/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.9% 6.8% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.8% 4.6% 1.0% 0.8% 4.8% 8.4% 25.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 13.7% Consensus: 2.2% 7.5% 4.0% 2.3% 0.3% 1.7% 5.5% 12.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 08/12/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/12/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 37 42 49 58 64 71 76 80 81 49 53 51 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 35 40 47 56 62 69 74 78 79 47 51 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 35 42 51 57 64 69 73 74 42 46 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 28 35 44 50 57 62 66 67 35 39 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT