* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 08/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 42 48 56 61 65 69 70 72 72 74 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 42 48 56 61 65 69 70 72 72 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 43 50 55 58 58 56 55 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 19 17 18 15 6 5 5 8 12 15 23 21 22 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -7 -4 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 1 2 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 80 99 108 109 122 87 72 330 291 295 264 280 282 322 317 359 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.4 27.0 27.2 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 136 133 129 131 127 129 137 141 146 141 144 147 144 148 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 136 133 129 131 127 129 137 141 144 136 138 138 135 138 144 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 57 56 55 52 49 50 52 52 57 62 68 68 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -22 -23 -20 -24 -26 -35 -45 -49 -47 -54 -33 -35 -20 -33 -30 -58 200 MB DIV -3 -14 -14 -15 -25 -8 -7 -18 9 32 44 53 28 22 29 17 -9 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 -1 -1 5 5 6 5 1 -1 -6 -8 -8 -8 -13 -21 LAND (KM) 1625 1789 1804 1798 1724 1511 1324 1194 1037 792 626 311 48 81 47 78 68 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.9 35.5 37.0 38.6 41.9 45.4 49.1 52.9 56.6 59.9 62.8 65.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 18 15 13 12 10 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 16 19 11 8 12 13 35 37 52 33 46 45 23 21 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 23. 31. 36. 40. 44. 45. 47. 47. 49. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 32.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.0% 6.9% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.3% 2.2% 2.8% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 5.5% 3.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.7% 3.4% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/11/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 34 42 48 56 61 65 69 70 72 72 74 73 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 41 47 55 60 64 68 69 71 71 73 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 37 43 51 56 60 64 65 67 67 69 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 29 35 43 48 52 56 57 59 59 61 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT