* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 48 51 51 51 49 47 46 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 48 51 51 51 49 47 46 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 35 37 38 37 36 34 32 31 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 7 3 6 11 14 19 25 33 34 35 31 19 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 2 0 1 -2 2 4 0 4 0 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 173 173 191 198 248 174 206 232 249 260 288 305 335 2 46 69 83 SST (C) 26.1 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 27.9 28.2 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 122 124 122 121 124 135 136 139 142 138 141 130 122 114 110 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 122 124 122 121 124 135 136 139 142 135 131 117 107 99 94 95 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 64 68 67 66 63 60 59 63 64 62 65 66 64 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 68 75 79 78 62 40 9 -17 -26 -83 -132 -158 -158 -175 -175 -145 200 MB DIV 6 30 45 41 32 21 32 5 4 21 14 24 17 4 -4 -18 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 6 5 12 0 17 18 31 21 19 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1541 1413 1290 1181 1078 916 836 566 354 89 251 552 733 677 658 739 856 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.7 15.1 16.9 19.3 22.0 24.9 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 41.1 42.7 44.3 46.1 49.9 53.9 58.2 62.7 66.9 70.2 72.1 72.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 18 19 21 23 24 22 19 15 13 12 11 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 4 12 7 7 23 29 26 37 19 22 13 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 23. 26. 26. 26. 24. 22. 21. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 39.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.9% 8.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 10.3% 4.9% 1.0% 0.5% 5.3% 8.7% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 3.5% Consensus: 2.0% 8.4% 4.7% 2.8% 0.2% 1.9% 6.6% 5.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/28/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/28/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 48 51 51 51 49 47 46 46 48 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 39 44 46 49 49 49 47 45 44 44 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 39 41 44 44 44 42 40 39 39 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 33 36 36 36 34 32 31 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT