* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 39 43 49 52 54 55 55 54 54 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 39 43 49 52 54 55 55 54 54 54 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 32 34 37 39 39 39 37 36 36 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 4 6 4 4 10 15 22 23 27 24 27 22 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 2 1 0 2 3 -3 2 5 5 10 -3 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 107 92 125 176 205 268 177 245 246 252 242 263 270 315 330 22 51 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.4 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 112 117 119 121 129 133 136 137 141 138 138 129 125 121 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 112 117 119 121 129 133 136 137 141 133 127 115 108 103 95 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 61 63 65 66 63 60 59 63 65 62 62 62 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 77 70 63 67 69 55 30 7 -21 -27 -90 -131 -177 -156 -174 -162 200 MB DIV 7 4 7 19 29 15 19 36 22 25 41 5 0 -6 0 0 -22 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 6 3 16 2 16 7 11 27 16 14 LAND (KM) 1628 1637 1551 1426 1306 1082 927 834 598 350 111 267 544 751 807 777 785 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.5 13.1 14.1 15.5 17.2 19.5 22.1 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.4 38.0 39.6 41.2 42.8 46.3 50.1 54.1 58.3 62.6 66.5 69.7 71.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 18 19 21 22 22 21 18 13 11 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 0 0 1 6 13 23 29 23 37 25 21 9 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 14. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. 29. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 36.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.5% 7.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 10.9% 6.0% 2.2% 1.2% 5.3% 8.9% 21.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 5.7% Consensus: 1.8% 7.3% 4.4% 2.8% 0.4% 1.8% 3.0% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/28/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 29 33 39 43 49 52 54 55 55 54 54 54 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 32 38 42 48 51 53 54 54 53 53 53 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 34 38 44 47 49 50 50 49 49 49 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 30 36 39 41 42 42 41 41 41 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT