* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/27/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 37 43 48 53 56 58 59 59 57 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 37 43 48 53 56 58 59 59 57 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 28 31 35 39 43 44 45 44 42 41 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 7 4 4 3 6 10 17 22 28 27 32 27 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 2 3 4 0 1 0 3 0 -2 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 78 100 86 48 15 253 17 216 268 260 261 267 310 315 339 3 45 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.9 26.6 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 116 114 115 122 123 130 134 137 137 138 139 134 127 114 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 116 113 115 122 123 130 134 137 137 137 132 121 112 98 94 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 64 61 67 66 65 61 59 61 62 60 61 64 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 79 69 60 55 65 53 40 22 -16 -28 -77 -125 -176 -146 -169 -158 200 MB DIV -6 10 9 4 10 7 17 31 24 0 27 22 54 32 -3 7 -2 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 1 -2 -1 5 0 11 12 9 16 27 33 11 16 LAND (KM) 1640 1639 1626 1595 1474 1207 996 867 715 562 183 206 416 722 854 799 840 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 11.9 12.3 13.0 14.2 15.7 18.0 20.6 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.5 36.0 37.4 38.9 40.4 43.7 47.3 51.2 55.4 59.7 64.0 67.8 70.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 15 15 17 18 20 22 23 23 21 17 13 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 0 0 10 5 22 27 28 31 24 23 10 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 32. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 34.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/27/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.2% 7.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 7.2% 3.7% 1.2% 0.7% 4.1% 6.2% 12.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% Consensus: 1.7% 6.2% 3.8% 2.6% 0.2% 1.4% 2.1% 5.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/27/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 31 37 43 48 53 56 58 59 59 57 56 55 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 29 35 41 46 51 54 56 57 57 55 54 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 32 38 43 48 51 53 54 54 52 51 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 25 31 36 41 44 46 47 47 45 44 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT