* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/26/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 43 48 51 56 61 63 65 65 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 43 48 51 56 61 63 65 65 65 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 34 38 43 48 52 52 50 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 18 15 13 10 12 2 9 5 9 13 25 26 27 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -3 5 6 9 3 0 0 1 3 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 110 112 106 89 85 96 114 151 330 338 314 276 278 291 306 320 336 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.9 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 124 119 117 114 114 116 127 124 130 135 138 138 139 137 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 124 119 116 113 114 116 127 124 130 135 138 137 131 123 115 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.9 -55.7 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 77 79 77 75 72 68 64 67 68 67 64 62 61 59 55 59 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 91 78 73 63 53 38 40 33 27 14 -6 -56 -80 -143 -162 -156 200 MB DIV 58 42 61 55 46 20 -27 1 23 25 24 21 -16 25 29 26 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 -2 7 13 13 34 31 44 32 23 LAND (KM) 1159 1260 1357 1454 1558 1700 1628 1510 1190 975 913 672 438 252 499 762 979 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.8 10.3 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.6 13.8 15.5 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.9 27.9 28.9 29.9 31.1 33.6 36.4 39.7 43.7 48.1 52.6 57.1 61.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 13 15 18 21 23 23 24 25 21 16 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 13 4 0 0 0 0 16 4 21 23 25 33 24 16 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 23. 26. 31. 36. 38. 40. 40. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 26.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/26/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.5% 6.6% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1.8% 2.8% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 1.9% 5.4% 3.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.6% 3.8% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/26/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 43 48 51 56 61 63 65 65 65 64 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 35 41 46 49 54 59 61 63 63 63 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 31 37 42 45 50 55 57 59 59 59 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 30 35 38 43 48 50 52 52 52 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT