* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/25/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 43 46 51 56 60 65 69 70 72 75 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 43 46 51 56 60 65 69 70 72 65 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 43 46 49 51 52 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 17 15 15 9 6 7 8 9 7 12 17 25 21 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 1 4 5 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 0 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 65 65 76 78 78 94 130 148 207 211 222 216 261 265 299 287 303 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.4 25.9 25.8 26.3 26.2 26.8 27.4 27.9 27.9 28.0 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 123 117 117 116 120 115 114 119 119 125 133 139 140 141 159 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 123 117 117 116 120 115 114 119 119 125 133 139 140 141 159 162 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 74 73 69 63 63 61 66 65 65 65 64 67 68 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 105 105 109 104 80 63 47 32 37 34 29 21 -2 5 -7 -54 200 MB DIV 57 77 41 36 20 16 -6 -29 8 35 33 34 37 -11 12 8 31 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -6 0 0 0 4 2 2 2 4 4 0 0 5 8 -1 LAND (KM) 765 879 1037 1199 1360 1707 1755 1585 1339 1111 951 719 470 326 102 12 -56 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.2 24.6 26.2 27.9 29.6 33.0 36.5 39.9 43.5 47.2 51.2 55.3 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 19 20 21 21 22 22 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 7 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 22 28 40 32 28 31 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 18 CX,CY: -13/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 371 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 18. 21. 26. 31. 36. 40. 44. 45. 47. 50. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.4 23.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/25/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.4% 6.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 6.9% 4.1% 2.5% 1.4% 4.0% 4.1% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.3% 3.6% 2.8% 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/25/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 38 43 46 51 56 60 65 69 70 72 65 54 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 35 40 43 48 53 57 62 66 67 69 62 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 35 38 43 48 52 57 61 62 64 57 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 29 34 39 43 48 52 53 55 48 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT