* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/25/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 42 47 50 54 60 62 63 63 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 42 47 50 54 60 62 63 63 64 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 37 38 39 38 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 27 25 26 18 13 4 1 6 17 18 23 29 31 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 0 3 1 5 11 4 0 0 0 -5 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 87 85 79 73 75 79 86 91 220 229 251 253 238 258 259 257 281 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.5 26.1 26.1 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 137 132 127 120 122 120 115 113 119 119 131 134 137 139 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 137 132 127 120 122 120 115 113 119 119 131 134 137 139 133 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 -55.3 -55.2 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 80 81 79 73 66 63 61 65 62 62 59 59 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 106 94 80 79 76 66 48 39 27 28 21 19 6 -36 -46 -93 200 MB DIV 92 59 75 89 70 20 0 8 -28 -19 34 38 32 23 11 23 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 15 13 30 39 6 LAND (KM) 716 726 744 772 829 1031 1301 1636 1784 1581 1296 1082 936 663 360 111 215 LAT (DEG N) 6.7 7.4 8.0 8.7 9.3 10.5 11.4 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.2 21.3 22.1 22.9 23.8 26.1 29.0 32.4 36.2 40.2 44.4 48.9 53.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 11 12 14 16 18 19 20 21 22 23 23 23 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 14 10 6 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 23 27 24 33 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 349 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 29. 35. 37. 38. 38. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 6.7 20.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/25/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 7.0% 5.2% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 6.1% 3.1% 3.9% 2.2% 3.5% 2.3% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 2.9% 2.8% 0.8% 1.2% 2.6% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/25/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 42 47 50 54 60 62 63 63 64 65 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 31 36 40 45 48 52 58 60 61 61 62 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 33 37 42 45 49 55 57 58 58 59 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 29 34 37 41 47 49 50 50 51 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT