* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/25/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 49 53 57 64 70 74 76 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 49 53 57 64 70 74 76 78 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 40 45 51 56 60 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 24 26 25 24 17 13 8 3 4 6 3 9 15 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 1 1 -2 0 -2 0 5 0 1 5 4 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 60 74 75 70 67 69 69 79 112 88 232 327 295 282 253 269 256 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.2 26.4 26.5 26.3 25.7 25.6 26.5 26.2 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 141 140 127 119 121 119 114 113 122 119 130 136 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 142 141 140 127 119 121 119 114 113 122 119 130 136 139 139 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.1 -55.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 84 83 84 78 74 67 63 64 67 68 64 64 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 93 87 77 69 71 70 70 60 47 51 54 58 56 45 23 38 200 MB DIV 134 94 68 80 116 59 48 23 3 -21 17 31 15 37 34 28 19 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -2 -3 0 0 -7 0 2 3 12 4 LAND (KM) 665 713 714 676 663 741 949 1225 1545 1760 1617 1275 1009 832 649 429 226 LAT (DEG N) 5.6 6.0 6.6 7.4 8.2 9.7 10.8 11.5 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.3 23.1 25.4 28.3 31.5 35.2 39.0 43.0 47.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 17 19 19 20 21 21 22 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 19 18 18 6 1 2 1 0 0 3 3 29 31 32 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 39. 45. 49. 51. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.6 18.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/25/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.9% 7.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 11.3% 4.7% 4.5% 2.7% 4.0% 3.8% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 8.5% 4.2% 3.6% 0.9% 1.4% 3.8% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/25/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 49 53 57 64 70 74 76 78 79 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 32 37 42 47 51 55 62 68 72 74 76 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 33 38 43 47 51 58 64 68 70 72 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 36 40 44 51 57 61 63 65 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT