* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 47 52 53 56 62 68 72 76 77 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 47 52 53 56 62 68 72 76 77 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 35 37 39 42 46 51 57 62 67 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 11 18 22 21 15 20 19 14 9 6 5 3 2 14 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 5 3 -4 2 -4 -5 -6 1 6 10 10 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 3 14 34 48 61 79 96 95 120 130 131 126 88 222 267 258 254 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.1 26.4 26.7 26.5 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.3 27.7 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 146 143 142 137 126 119 123 121 116 119 122 121 137 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 146 143 142 137 126 119 123 121 116 119 122 121 137 138 141 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -55.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 84 85 84 85 78 71 67 66 71 70 69 63 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 10 850 MB ENV VOR 77 96 90 90 70 57 62 65 59 51 44 46 44 53 48 21 21 200 MB DIV 140 134 104 77 94 128 76 38 31 -14 -31 14 2 40 39 36 44 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 -1 3 2 5 3 4 7 3 4 9 LAND (KM) 596 662 720 728 691 658 772 999 1270 1599 1641 1515 1169 883 730 557 458 LAT (DEG N) 5.0 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.9 8.5 9.7 10.5 11.1 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.1 21.5 23.4 25.8 28.6 31.8 35.3 39.0 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 17 18 19 20 22 23 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 30 22 19 17 5 2 3 2 0 1 5 6 43 34 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 33. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 22. 27. 28. 31. 37. 43. 47. 51. 52. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.0 17.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.7% 10.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 26.0% 10.7% 6.0% 3.6% 7.1% 7.6% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 7.1% 0.4% Consensus: 3.7% 15.8% 7.6% 4.8% 1.2% 2.5% 8.3% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/24/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 47 52 53 56 62 68 72 76 77 83 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 36 42 44 49 50 53 59 65 69 73 74 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 37 39 44 45 48 54 60 64 68 69 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 31 36 37 40 46 52 56 60 61 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT