* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 50 56 60 63 67 70 77 78 80 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 50 56 60 63 67 70 77 78 80 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 41 45 48 51 55 59 61 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 12 14 21 12 11 13 13 7 7 1 4 9 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 3 4 5 -1 0 6 3 2 3 5 6 4 5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 16 21 20 25 43 58 110 90 90 127 130 155 283 202 239 230 238 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.7 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.9 26.4 26.2 26.9 27.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 147 144 143 141 134 123 122 119 116 116 121 119 127 129 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 147 144 143 141 134 123 122 119 116 116 121 119 127 129 138 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 79 81 84 84 84 85 79 74 64 60 58 59 58 55 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 12 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 64 73 85 88 78 57 68 72 68 68 70 71 65 48 35 12 -9 200 MB DIV 123 132 141 126 97 126 137 61 43 38 20 12 2 5 -1 -1 21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -3 -3 3 3 5 3 2 7 9 18 26 LAND (KM) 549 643 707 759 760 706 728 909 1167 1461 1755 1648 1353 1130 983 822 657 LAT (DEG N) 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.8 7.3 8.8 9.9 10.9 11.6 11.8 11.8 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.0 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.7 20.9 22.5 24.8 27.5 30.6 34.2 38.0 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 8 10 12 13 15 17 18 19 20 21 23 23 25 HEAT CONTENT 26 34 34 28 22 16 11 3 3 1 0 0 1 6 18 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 25. 31. 35. 38. 42. 45. 52. 53. 55. 55. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.0 17.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 21.7% 11.4% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 24.0% 8.4% 3.3% 1.9% 5.8% 6.5% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 2.8% 16.4% 7.0% 4.0% 0.6% 2.0% 6.0% 3.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/24/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 43 50 56 60 63 67 70 77 78 80 80 80 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 41 48 54 58 61 65 68 75 76 78 78 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 36 43 49 53 56 60 63 70 71 73 73 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 34 40 44 47 51 54 61 62 64 64 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT