* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 42 47 53 57 60 63 66 69 73 76 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 42 47 53 57 60 63 66 69 73 76 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 263 275 289 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 27.4 27.9 28.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 132 139 143 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 132 139 143 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 20 28 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 28 38 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 4 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 16 50 102 97 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 64.0 65.9 67.8 69.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 8 11 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 39. 43. 46. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 62.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 19.4% 13.8% 10.5% 9.2% 11.6% 12.0% 999.0% Logistic: 9.0% 32.1% 23.2% 13.4% 6.9% 17.5% 20.6% 999.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 16.5% 5.2% 0.5% 0.2% 2.1% 5.9% 999.0% Consensus: 5.4% 22.6% 14.1% 8.1% 5.4% 10.4% 12.8% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 38 42 47 53 57 60 63 66 69 73 76 80 80 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 39 44 50 54 57 60 63 66 70 73 77 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 35 40 46 50 53 56 59 62 66 69 73 73 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 32 38 42 45 48 51 54 58 61 65 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT