* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 41 44 48 53 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 79 80 V (KT) LAND 35 32 37 38 40 39 36 34 32 31 30 29 29 28 28 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 36 36 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 328 260 277 297 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 134 138 142 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 134 138 142 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 57 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 28 30 21 28 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 25 30 37 27 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 1 0 -1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 131 -1 44 112 110 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.8 61.6 63.5 65.6 67.6 71.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 26 9 11 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 40. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.3 59.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 19.5% 13.9% 10.8% 9.6% 12.1% 12.3% 17.9% Logistic: 6.0% 23.3% 14.5% 9.7% 5.7% 17.4% 11.6% 22.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 16.4% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 0.8% 11.2% Consensus: 4.5% 19.8% 11.2% 7.0% 5.1% 10.4% 8.2% 17.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 37 38 40 39 36 34 32 31 30 29 29 28 28 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 40 42 41 38 36 34 33 32 31 31 30 30 30 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 33 30 28 26 25 24 23 23 22 22 22 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 26 23 21 19 18 17 16 16 15 15 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT