* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 34 35 38 41 45 49 53 56 60 63 65 67 70 74 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 34 35 38 41 45 49 53 56 60 63 65 67 70 74 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 30 30 30 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 4 6 11 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 5 4 3 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 287 309 327 238 280 219 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 149 145 152 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 149 149 149 145 152 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 11 11 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 55 53 53 54 55 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 10 9 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 17 27 24 21 35 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 7 20 29 28 16 9 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -6 -2 1 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 367 311 154 67 122 223 162 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.6 13.5 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.3 58.0 59.6 61.1 62.5 66.0 69.6 72.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 16 18 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 48 37 28 28 25 69 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -1. -0. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 35. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.0 56.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 17.2% 12.4% 10.0% 9.2% 11.4% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 22.6% 15.2% 14.8% 11.4% 13.0% 8.6% 20.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.9% 14.1% 9.3% 8.3% 6.8% 8.2% 6.7% 6.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 34 35 38 41 45 49 53 56 60 63 65 67 70 74 18HR AGO 35 34 33 35 36 39 42 46 50 54 57 61 64 66 68 71 75 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 40 44 48 52 55 59 62 64 66 69 73 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 32 36 40 44 47 51 54 56 58 61 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT