* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 33 36 41 45 47 52 55 60 63 66 67 70 72 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 33 36 41 45 47 52 55 60 63 66 67 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 12 13 9 13 8 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 5 6 3 3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 241 285 302 295 274 268 241 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 149 149 149 148 148 152 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 149 149 149 148 148 152 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 11 9 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 54 53 52 57 60 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 30 25 16 29 22 28 37 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 11 9 15 17 50 30 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -6 -6 1 5 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 454 384 319 183 101 190 205 168 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.4 13.0 13.7 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.8 56.3 57.8 59.3 60.9 64.2 67.7 70.7 73.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 16 16 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 41 48 40 32 27 48 90 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 6. 10. 12. 17. 20. 25. 28. 31. 32. 35. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.9 54.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 15.1% 10.8% 8.7% 8.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 12.3% 7.7% 5.4% 4.0% 5.8% 6.1% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 9.5% 6.3% 4.7% 4.0% 5.4% 2.1% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 32 33 36 41 45 47 52 55 60 63 66 67 70 72 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 34 37 42 46 48 53 56 61 64 67 68 71 73 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 35 40 44 46 51 54 59 62 65 66 69 71 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 34 38 40 45 48 53 56 59 60 63 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT